What will the 2024/2025 cocoa season bring?

The recently gone cocoa season ranks among the toughest ones in recent history, seeing some of the world’s biggest producers, like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, who produce 60% of global supply, dealing with major setbacks. A considerable drop in yields was driven by factors like the spread of the cacao swollen shoot, which is one of the most economically destructive diseases of cacao trees, together with aging cocoa trees and severe weather conditions. Cocoa prices skyrocketed to record levels, with manufacturers and traders scrambling to secure supplies and ordinary businesses confronting pivotal decisions. 

On an optimistic note, the approaching 2024/2025 season seems to spell good news overall. There are expectations of an improved crop outlook for the time frame, specifically in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which may equilibrate prices worldwide. In the former nation, for instance, cocoa farms are hopeful for a recovery in yields as the disease management strategy and weather patterns improve. 

The upcoming season is expected to bring good fortunes, with the market holding its breath to see if better cocoa availability, stock recovery, and, ultimately, lower prices will materialize. In the meantime, there are impactful things on the immediate agenda for those involved in the cocoa industry or dependent on its growth, including the average consumer. Ready for the beans? 

Higher cocoa prices 

This year, something unique occurred within the all-encompassing cocoa sector. The world market price points have dealt with the greatest volatility levels over 12 months. Spot price points went from $2K/ton in March 2023 to $12K/ton in February 2024, followed by a drop that equated the ton at no less than $7,960 in September. The same turmoil also affected the futures market, where the leading cocoa-producing nation has been active for over half a century. It was about time the government intervened to implement transformative change that would trigger the trickle-down effect, reinstating the nation’s standing in the global market, and bringing back order, addressing key issues like unsafe labor practices.

In light of the recent price fluctuations, the PPRC on cocoa settled the ingredient’s Producer Price and other fees and rates that are expected to impact businesses prioritizing their cocoa’s quality. Ghana is one of the most important crop producers for quality-oriented today’s cocoa supplier, so clearly, some collaborations will be subjected to changes. On another note, telling reliable from shady companies distributing cocoa will be easier, the transparency in declaring partnerships being a green flag. Companies that keep prioritizing their products’ quality and use cocoa from top suppliers will only have reasons to brag, an outcome that will build consumer trust and strengthen their position in the market. 

Heightened focus on sustainability 

Cocoa is the keystone of a massive industry with immense global impact. As much as we all love chocolate, the bitter truth is that our sweet savory comes with a hidden price, paid by both the people behind it and our environment. From fabrication to production and transportation, the cycle creates economic, ecological, and social challenges. A few regions are geographically capable and in the highest-ranking position to suffice the global demand for cocoa, namely Ghana, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, and Ecuador. In regions where cocoa is abundant but social justice scarce, problems like child labor and unsafe working conditions could prevail, if not for companies like ofi, which tackle these issues through leadership initiatives like their ‘Coffee Kindergartens’ project.

Fortunately, several organizations in the sector have long been committed to promoting safe and sustainable practices across the whole supply chain, starting with ethical sourcing and transparency with consumers and human labor protection. Leading companies stand out through a range of proactive actions, such as aligning with fair trade standards to ensure sustainability in delivering cocoa crops and ultimately leveling up what people understand through high-quality, naturally sourced ingredients. Cocoa sustainability is associated with many decisive actions, and since the average human has little power to trigger actual change, prominent cocoa providers have a considerable responsibility to accomplish – and some of these bigwigs know there’s plenty at stake if they promote and engage in healthy, sustainable practices. 

A push for traceability

Traceability has stopped being a buzzword and is now an essential element of sustainable company operations. Using a traceability system, cooperatives and producers of cocoa can prove their products meet the strictest environmental and social standards the market calls for. Here, it’s not just their good reputation at stake, but also their competitive edge against a jam-packed market where the customer decides the winner. Cocoa consumers today ask for transparency and reliability, expecting brands to be see-through about how they cultivate, process, and deliver related products. Purchasers worldwide look for businesses that guarantee the sale of certified, sustainable cocoa, among other green flags.

For dealers, processors, entrepreneurs, and customers, their enabled ability to track the origins of their products and how they got to their plates reassures them their bought cocoa is created, meeting ethical and sustainable standards. Since price fluctuations and supply difficulties sweep over the market, it’s safe to say that traceable products aren’t just a quality mark, but a protective measure against the perils that may otherwise be brought about by working with sketchy sources.

Raised awareness among big confectionery companies 

Bigwigs representing investors are now urging chocolate-related companies like Mars, Ferrero, Lindt, and Hershey’s to increase their payments to cocoa suppliers. Letters have been sent to these leading companies, among others. Bears in the market are banking on enhanced market watch, better weather, and farm rehabilitation, among other things. Ghana’s cocoa export revenues dropped considerably year-on-year, calling for change among those who make the games within the industry. 

Consumers’ preferences are changing, impacting market dynamics.

Stricter quality standards and premium chocolate quality are two of the trends dictating which confectionaries win. Consumers make their decisions based on who meets their needs, such as offering real ingredients, low-sugar and organic cocoa, and healthy filling substitutes. All these preferences must be met without compromising on the deliciousness’s taste. 

Moreover, they expect more varied and exciting cocoa-based goods, looking to try fresh flavor combos that challenge what they knew about cocoa until now. If you’re among cocoa fans eager to know what’s being cooked in the oven, stay posted and keep scouring through the providers to only buy from reliable ones who deliver on their promises.